Economic Impacts Of Climate Change In Developing Countries – All countries, rich and poor, must adapt to climate change. A recent report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights the dramatic consequences of failing to curb rising global temperatures and adapt to a hotter planet. Adaptation should address the risks of climate change and extreme weather, for example by protecting agriculture, addressing the impacts of rising sea levels and strengthening infrastructure.

The benefits of adaptation are sometimes difficult to estimate because they depend on certain factors, such as how well a country is adapted to its current climate. Nonetheless, well-designed policies can deliver big returns, as we show in three papers published today that address climate adaptation and fiscal policy, macro-fiscal impacts, and integrating climate adaptation into the mainstream of financial planning.

Economic Impacts Of Climate Change In Developing Countries

Economic Impacts Of Climate Change In Developing Countries

Long-term savings from investing in resilience and coping mechanisms – such as better irrigation, improved seed varieties, strengthened health systems and better access to finance and telecommunications – can be very significant. This is particularly true in sub-Saharan Africa, which experiences a third of all droughts worldwide and is particularly vulnerable to rising temperatures and extreme weather due to its reliance on rainfed agriculture. Our research shows that a single drought can reduce an African country’s medium-term economic growth potential by 1 percentage point.

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However, in Ethiopia, some farmers’ yields increased by up to 40 percent by developing wheat varieties that were resistant to rust, a fungal disease. In Ghana, meanwhile, cocoa farmers made their crops more resilient to drought by improving seeds and irrigation and planting trees to protect their crops from the sun.

The benefits of investing in adaptation are not limited to sub-Saharan Africa: countries in all regions of the world can benefit from adapting to a hotter planet. However, this does not mean that adaptation can replace mitigation. Without strong climate action, it will be impossible to stabilize global temperatures and adaptation would be unimaginably expensive.

Some countries are already facing huge costs. Research by and others suggests that public adjustment costs will reach about 0.25 percent of global gross domestic product per year in the coming decades. While such estimates may seem manageable on a global scale, they are not representative of the scale of the challenge facing many poor and vulnerable countries. We estimate that annual demand will exceed 1 percent of GDP in about 50 low-income and developing economies over the next decade. For small island states exposed to tropical cyclones and rising sea levels, the costs can be even higher, reaching up to 20 percent of GDP.

Unfortunately, the countries that need to adapt the most often lack the resources to do so. They generally lack the financial resources and institutional capacity to implement the necessary adaptation programs. In addition, some countries most exposed to heatwaves, droughts, storms and sea level rise often face other pressing development needs. This means it is more important than ever to invest in resilient growth and fully integrate adaptation with other sustainable development goals.

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The international community can help poor and vulnerable countries adapt by providing financial support and building institutional capacity. These countries will suffer the most devastating impacts of climate change, even if they are not responsible for causing it. It is also in the world’s interest to ensure that climate change does not threaten development and stability in poorer countries. Investing in climate resilience can also be financially efficient for development partners, as upfront investments in protection can be cheaper than humanitarian assistance and post-disaster reconstruction.

To be successful, adaptation support should complement existing assistance, with optimized conditionalities appropriate to the country’s institutional capacity. For example, we found that lengthy and complex requirements have hindered Pacific Island countries’ direct access to international climate funds.

The Fund is helping its members address adaptation challenges, including with today’s release of three reports that complement and support the work of the World Bank, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other international organizations, and build on the Fund’s existing work.

Economic Impacts Of Climate Change In Developing Countries

This work includes analyzing regional and national climate change adaptation challenges in our annual Article IV consultations (e.g. for the Maldives, for the Republic of Congo or Dominica) and in cross-country studies (e.g. for Africa southern of the Sahara). the Western Hemisphere as well as Asia and the Pacific).

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The Fund is also helping by expanding its capacity-building support, which now includes programs on macroeconomic climate assessment, climate-focused public investment management assessments and green public financial management.

Finally, we are working with member states and partners to develop financing solutions, such as the proposed Resilience and Sustainability Trust, to transform financial resources from countries with strong external positions into affordable long-term financing for vulnerable countries. This will help recipients address structural challenges such as climate change through policy reforms to promote balance of payments stability.

Climate adaptation alone is not enough. If global temperatures are not stabilized through strong climate action, adaptation will be unimaginably expensive. However, countries can still reap great benefits from investing in resilient growth and integrating adaptation into development strategies. Working Paper Series No. 822: Climate Change in Developing Countries: Impacts of Global Warming, Transmission Channels and Adaptation Policies

Using panel data covering 126 low- and middle-income countries over the period 1960–2017, we find that persistent positive temperature deviations from their historical norms have a nonlinear negative effect on economic and per capita growth. A sustained 1°C increase in temperature reduces annual real GDP per capita growth by 0.74–1.52 percentage points, regardless of development level. We also find that the temperature increase affects the intertemporal trade-off between household consumption and investment, as the share of private consumption in total value added increases while the share of investment decreases. A sectoral breakdown shows that the share of industrial value creation is also falling. While the share of agricultural value added increases, agricultural production and productivity decrease. In summary, our results suggest that global warming will increase development pitfalls and hinder further adaptation to climate change, especially in the lowest income countries due to their lower resilience and higher socioeconomic vulnerability.

Chapter 9: Africa

Climate change is one of the global challenges of our time. Its growing and global environmental and socioeconomic impacts have significant influence on the current international agenda and national policymaking. However, its impact can vary significantly depending on the level of economic development, with low- and middle-income countries bearing disproportionate costs as they are affected by a faster pace of climate change, including temperature rise, despite having contributed only marginally to global ones Carbon flows and stocks. They must therefore undertake significant adaptation efforts while contributing to climate mitigation, which may mean different priorities between mitigation and adaptation measures, in particular through the use of policy instruments that promote rapid economic growth. This is intended to ensure economic convergence with developed countries and contribute to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. These policy dilemmas and the risk of collective action failures due to different levels of development were recognized in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, which includes $100 billion in annual transfer commitments from advanced economies to developing countries.

The current and rapidly growing literature linking temperatures and precipitation to output growth already points to a negative effect on economic growth in the vast majority of developed and developing countries (Dell et al., 2012, 2014, Acevedo et al ., 2020, Kahn et al., 2019), with possible accelerating and cumulative nonlinear effects (Burke et al., 2015b). However, due to the special characteristics of developing countries (higher demographic growth, lower levels of development and resilience, lower institutional quality), the effects of climate on economic growth (or development, expressed by GDP per capita) may differ from those in highlands . income countries both in terms of scale and transmission mechanisms.

Using panel data from 126 low- and middle-income countries over the period 1960–2017, we find that persistent positive temperature deviations from their historical norms have a negative effect on economic growth and per capita growth and that this effect is nonlinear and accelerates as temperatures rise. A sustained 1°C increase in temperature reduces annual real GDP per capita growth by 0.74 to 1.52 percentage points, regardless of level of development.

Economic Impacts Of Climate Change In Developing Countries

We also find that global warming increases the relative share of private consumption at the expense of investment, possibly reflecting more binding subsistence requirements in a context of declining production and potential production, leading to larger development gaps. The share of agricultural value added in GDP is increasing, despite a decline in agricultural production growth, at the expense of industrial value added, potentially exacerbating the “food problem”: lower-income countries have to devote a higher share of their resources to food production to support their livelihoods cover up. Both the sectoral and demand decompositions of GDP suggest a shift toward short-term gains at the expense of economic diversification and future prosperity.

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Global warming represents a development trap that has jeopardized increases in living standards, particularly since the beginning of the 21st century. It requires even greater adaptation efforts in developing countries, especially in those with the lowest income levels due to their lower resilience and higher socioeconomic vulnerability. The gap between the economic performance of the richest and poorest countries in the world is now 25 percent larger than it would otherwise have been without global warming, according to New

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