Impacts Of Climate Change On The Future Of Biodiversity – This map shows the global change in a measure called the “fire weather index” (FWI) predicted by the study’s analysis for the year 2045 (red: more extreme fire weather; blue: less). The FWI captures a combination of conditions, including low precipitation and strong winds, that together increase fire-related extreme weather in a region.

Analysis of high-resolution projections from NASA Earth Exchange concludes that if global temperatures continue to rise and reach 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, people around the world could face multiple impacts of change simultaneously, with severe consequences. Credit: NASA/Taejin Park

Impacts Of Climate Change On The Future Of Biodiversity

If global temperatures continue to rise and reach 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, people around the world could face multiple impacts of change at once. This is according to a study conducted by NASA that analyzed the expected impacts of such warming to understand how the different effects might combine. A 2 degree increase in global temperature is considered a critical threshold above which dangerous, cascading effects of human-generated change will occur.

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Researchers have found that more than a quarter of the world’s population may be experiencing an additional month of severe heat stress each year compared to the mid-20th century (1950-1979). High temperatures and drought could combine dangerously in places like the Amazon, increasing the risk of wildfires. In the American West, extreme fires will likely be more intense and last longer.

To study the potentially cumulative effects of rising temperatures, the study authors worked with a series of specially developed forecasts. The predictions were originally generated by 35 of the world’s leading models, most notably by contributors to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which includes models developed by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. CMIP provides projections that help the Intergovernmental Panel on Change and other international and national groups understand historical, current and future changes.

Researchers at NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) then took the CMIP6 model results and used advanced statistical techniques to “scale” them, significantly improving resolution. NEX uses supercomputers at NASA’s Ames Research Center in California’s Silicon Valley to analyze large amounts of data collected by planes and satellites, or, in this case, projections produced by models. The resulting NEX dataset supporting this research is publicly available and can be found online.

With the new data set in hand, Ames NEX researchers analyzed the downscaled projections to evaluate expected changes for six key variables. They looked at changes in air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, short-wave and long-wave solar radiation, and wind speed at the point where warming exceeds 2°C.

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“We wanted to study how these aspects of the environment are expected to change and what their combined impacts might mean for people around the world,” said Taejin Park, first author of the study and a researcher at Ames at the Bay Area Environmental Research Institute . (BAERI).

The researchers paid particular attention to two indicators: heat stress – or the combined effects of temperature and humidity on the human body – and fire weather – which considers temperature, precipitation, humidity and wind. Most regions of the world will experience higher heat stress, while countries closer to the equator will suffer from a greater number of days considered extreme.

“The increasing impacts of all extremes studied could cause significant damage to communities and economies, due to fires, floods, landslides and crop failures that could result,” said Ramakrishna Nemani, senior scientist at BAERI and co-author of the study.

The scaled NEX dataset used for this research provides global daily projections, derived from CMIP6 models, out to the year 2100. The daily nature of the NEX product is important for capturing extremes. If merged into a monthly average, Park explained, some days that are predicted to be dangerously hot and humid could get lost in the numbers, hiding the risk to human lives.

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The level of local and regional detail – the resolution of the projections – is higher in the NEX product than in most projections, which could help leaders develop targeted adaptation and mitigation plans. Raw model projections typically give results for areas of about 120 by 120 miles (200 by 200 kilometers), while the NEX downscaling work increases that resolution to about 15 by 15 miles (25 by 25 kilometers).

Reducing data on such a large scale is a big job, and NEX researchers relied on NASA’s powerful Pleiades supercomputer in Ames. Pleiades helps solve some of NASA’s most challenging problems, playing an important role in rocket launches for the Artemis program, fuel-efficient aircraft design, and Earth studies.

NEX scientists hope the reduced projections can help decision makers prepare for and protect their regions from impacts. For example, a local politician might decide to build more flood barriers or pursue less development in flood-prone areas, said Ian Brosnan, co-author of the paper and principal scientist at NEX. The NEX dataset can also help new commercial and non-commercial businesses. for-profit companies develop customized risk assessments for the public and private sectors.

“NASA’s pared-down data is in a really accessible form,” Brosnan said. “People around the world with some technical skill – from university students to expert scientists – can delve deeper into the information contained in these projections.”

Effects Of Climate Change On Future Plant Herbivore Interactions

Animated map images showing the expected change in the Fire Weather Index are available in GIF and MP4 file formats for the following regions:

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We have seen an increase of approximately 1.0°C in average global temperatures since pre-industrial times. This is already damaging the planet’s ecosystems in ways that are harmful to biodiversity; and dangerous for people. The impacts of climate change are being felt across all biomes and systems: from polar regions, to our freshwaters, to oceans, to grasslands and savannas, to forests and food.

Nature is a fundamental ally in the fight against climate change and nature loss. Data shows that strong, healthy national ecosystems can help fight climate change, as well as strengthen resilience and help us adapt to climate impacts. It is essential to decarbonise our economy and promote and support these “nature-based solutions”.

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The Climate, Nature and our 1.5°C Future report brings together findings from four recent authoritative reports on climate change and biodiversity from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) . These are the IPCC Special Reports on Global Warming of 1.5ºC, Soil, Ocean and Cryosphere and the IPBES Global Assessment on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.

The Climate, Nature and our 1.5°C Future report illustrates the impacts and risks to people and nature, as well as the solutions nature can provide to human development, the climate crisis and biodiversity decline.

Climate, nature and our future report 1.5°C PDF 12.52 MB Climate, nature and our future report 1.5°C (Spanish) PDF 12.04 MB

These are just some of the impacts, risks and solutions on the climate: more details are available in the full report on Climate, Nature and 1.5°C Future.

Climate Endgame: Exploring Catastrophic Climate Change Scenarios

Climate change is already causing dramatic changes to polar and marine landscapes, with rising temperatures causing severe ice loss in both polar regions and wildlife suffering from changing polar habitats.

Maintaining the polar regions as we know them, with ice, snow and permafrost, requires urgent and ambitious global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Integrating the implications of climate change into the governance of polar regions, creating networks of protected areas and improving fisheries management can help preserve ecosystems for the future.

The ocean is under pressure from human activities and absorbs more than 90% of the earth’s excess heat, making it less hospitable to marine life. The ocean is acidifying and the amount of oxygen is decreasing, while rising sea levels are impacting coastal communities, habitats and biodiversity.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting and restoring ecosystems such as oyster beds, seagrass beds, coral reefs and mangroves can help protect coastal areas and protect “blue carbon” habitats. The implementation of effective networks of marine protected areas, together with better governance and finance, can help protect the ocean from climate change.

How Climate Change Affects Life On Earth

Freshwater ecosystems are seeing an even worse decline in biodiversity than land. They are threatened by unsustainable agriculture, fragmentation of rivers due to hydroelectric dams, and loss of runoff due to snowpack, glaciers and permafrost in high mountain regions.

Limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C could reduce pressure on water supplies, while restoring degraded ecosystems, limiting the expansion of agriculture and optimizing water use could help protect water systems. fresh water. Better governance and a disaster recovery plan can help protect freshwater ecosystems into the future.

Grasslands and savannas are being lost and degrading faster than any other biome on the planet, as a misunderstanding of their importance has led to mismanagement and conversion to other land uses. They are threatened by agricultural production and overgrazing, while climate change is changing their composition.

Reducing emissions will prevent further climate-related decline of grassland and savanna ecosystems

Pdf] Climate Change And Its Impacts

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